At 6 am the centre of TD04F was located about 900 km west of Rotuma and 1050 km west-northwest of Nadi or about 300 km northeast of Sola in the Banks group in Vanuatu.
Currently it is moving slowly east-southeast in the general direction of Fiji.
Forecast guidance is improving and becoming more consistent.
It is now generally agreed that the most likely track will take the centre east southeast in the general direction of Wallis and Futuna, as a depression, before beginning a more generally southeasterly path around midday on Thursday while still 400 km or so north of Yasawa i Ra.
As it starts to move southeastward later Thursday it will accelerate and intensify significantly.
This period will be crucial in determining its eventual intensity, and where it makes landfall (if at all).
Latest forecasts this morning suggest landfall will probably be somewhere along the Macuata coast of Vanua Levu, and probably on Friday during the daytime.
There is a small (but non-zero!) risk it could miss us completely and pass to the east.
It’s not the most likely outcome, but it is not totally out of the realms of possibility.
A hand crafted track blending in the latest guidance is shown on the satellite image – bear in mind this is a rough guide only: more precise information regarding likely places of impact and the expected intensity wont really be possible until Thursday, so for now just assume that if you are somewhere in the Fiji islands group you are potentially in harms way and you should prepare accordingly.
For the moment High pressure straddling New Zealand and extending east to another high over waters well south of French Polynesia maintains moderate easterly trade winds over Fiji.
It will be warm and humid today, and tomorrow, with showers popping up from time to time over most places, but confined to the afternoon and evening about the west.
One or two afternoon thunderstorms likely about the larger islands today.
Light easterly winds and daytime sea breezes about the larger islands.
Rain will begin to increase tomorrow night and during the day on Thursday.
SOURCE – Na Draki Weather